Expectations were much lower just a few months ago, when Tesla and its automotive peers shut factories and showrooms and watched their stock prices crater. But while other car manufacturers’ shares have come back slowly, Tesla’s have soared, closing Wednesday at a daily record high of $1,119.63.
The company’s market capitalization has shot up to $208 billion, passing Exxon Mobil Corp. and auto industry leader Toyota Motor Corp.
“The lesson learned by now is that TSLA shares tend to ‘work’ when something new has launched,” Jeffrey Osborne, a Cowen Inc. analyst with the equivalent of a sell rating on the stock, said in a report Tuesday. “At this point both the Model Y and China built cars are ramping up.”
“Breaking even is looking super tight,” the CEO wrote to staff in an email seen by Bloomberg. “Really makes a difference for every car you build and deliver. Please go all out to ensure victory!”
Hibernating bears
Musk has sent many end-of-quarter internal memos both to rally employees and signal to investors, but his optimism has sometimes been misplaced. The then-record 97,000 deliveries Tesla reported for the three months that ended in September fell short of the 100,000 mark he floated in an email to workers.
This quarter, though, even skeptics in the analyst community see reason to be upbeat.
“With strong production in China and better-than-expected production in Fremont, we think that Tesla will beat what appears to be a low bar for deliveries,” Brian Johnson, a Barclays Plc analyst with a sell-equivalent rating on the stock, wrote in a report.
He estimates 85,000 vehicle deliveries, potentially setting Tesla up for a quarterly profit that would make the stock eligible for inclusion in the S&P 500 Index. Johnson still believes the carmaker’s shares are “fundamentally overvalued,” but believes they could keep moving higher in the coming weeks.
